What happens when a critical conservation decision is based on a flawed model? With Kevin Shoemaker, Ph.D. (July 31, 2025)

In November 2023, a colleague and Shoemaker discovered serious errors in a population model for gopher tortoises (Gopherus polyphemus), a declining species that inhabits longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystems in the southeastern USA. This model played a key role in the US Fish and Wildlife Service’s recent decision to deny the gopher tortoise federal protection status under the Endangered Species Act across much of its range. Once corrected, this model predicted severe population declines across the range, suggesting that the listing decision would have been different had the corrected model been available to policymakers at the time of the decision. This incident made us realize how easily flawed models can influence conservation decisions and how difficult it is to change course once a policy decision has been made. Although it can be challenging to generalize from a single case, these experiences can help pave the way for science-based conservation decisions that are less prone to error and more transparent.

Dr. Kevin Shoemaker is an Associate Professor of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation at the University of Nevada, Reno (UNR), where he serves as director of the Applied Population Ecology lab. Kevin’s research encompasses a diverse range of species, focusing on the application of quantitative methods to inform wildlife conservation and management. Kevin received his Master’s and Doctoral degrees at the SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, where his dissertation research focused on the conservation of bog turtle metapopulations in New York. He was a Postdoctoral Fellow in the Department of Ecology and Evolution at Stony Brook University from 2012 to 2015. Kevin has expertise in wildlife ecology, biostatistics, and population modeling.

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